Allanblackia: my hypotheses

A few weeks ago, I shared some background information about a project I am working on with the Allanblackia tree species and invited you to make your own hypotheses about how seed dispersal and the tree population might change over time if there are fewer seeds in the forest.

I have two main hypotheses about what will happen to seed dispersal:

1) Allanblackia seeds will be carried further by rodents if there are fewer seeds.

2) Seeds moved by rodents are more likely to get eaten before they are able to germinate.

I think the seeds will be moved further because the rodents want to reduce the risk of other rodents finding "their" seeds and eating them. If there are lots of seeds around, then they can be a bit lazy and just hide them nearby. If there aren't many seeds though, they carry them farther away so other rodents going to the source are less likely to find them.

Any individual seed has a chance of getting eaten or being forgotten by a rodent. If it's forgotten, then the seed might germinate and sprout into a seedling. I think that if there are fewer seeds around, the chance of any one seed getting eaten is much higher. The rats have to eat!

In order to test my hypotheses, I'm putting groups of 16 seeds in different places in the forest, but I need to come up with a way to:

1) Find where the seeds are being moved and how far they are going

2) Revisit the seed over several weeks or months to see if it germinates.

What would you do? How would you track these seeds in the forest? They are roughly the size of a walnut. How would you know if the seed you find is one from the experiment?

Soon I'll let you know how I'm tracking the seeds, but I would love to hear your ideas!

The Allanblackia Project

Scientists make hypotheses based on observations and/or background information. Then they design experiments to test their hypotheses. I'm going to provide some background information, then let you try to come up with your hypotheses.

Background information:

Allanblackia is the name of a tall canopy tree that produces big fruits with many seeds inside. People collect the seeds because they can be pressed for vegetable oil (you've probably heard of corn oil, olive oil, or canola oil which all come from seeds, too). However, when people collect the seeds from the forest, then there are fewer seeds left for the animals to eat. This isn't a big problem if only a few people are collecting seeds, but many people are collecting seeds all around the Amani Nature Reserve.

What do you think the animals will do if there are fewer Allanblackia seeds? What do you think will happen to Allanblackia over time in the nature reserve?

To answer the first question, think about the answer to mystery photo #1. For the second question, think about why seeds are important in a plant's life cycle.